Challenge 4

Author

Gauri Naik

Published

April 8, 2023

We are going to look at the data set for the federal funds rate in this challenge. Let us load a preview of the raw data.

Year Month Day Federal.Funds.Target.Rate Federal.Funds.Upper.Target Federal.Funds.Lower.Target Effective.Federal.Funds.Rate Real.GDP..Percent.Change. Unemployment.Rate Inflation.Rate
1954 7 1 NA NA NA 0.80 4.6 5.8 NA
1954 8 1 NA NA NA 1.22 NA 6.0 NA
1954 9 1 NA NA NA 1.06 NA 6.1 NA
1954 10 1 NA NA NA 0.85 8.0 5.7 NA
1954 11 1 NA NA NA 0.83 NA 5.3 NA
1954 12 1 NA NA NA 1.28 NA 5.0 NA

The first six rows of our data show we are dealing with ten variables. Let’s find the type of variable and how many total rows of data we have.

[1] 904  10
'data.frame':   904 obs. of  10 variables:
 $ Year                        : int  1954 1954 1954 1954 1954 1954 1955 1955 1955 1955 ...
 $ Month                       : int  7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 ...
 $ Day                         : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
 $ Federal.Funds.Target.Rate   : num  NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...
 $ Federal.Funds.Upper.Target  : num  NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...
 $ Federal.Funds.Lower.Target  : num  NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...
 $ Effective.Federal.Funds.Rate: num  0.8 1.22 1.06 0.85 0.83 1.28 1.39 1.29 1.35 1.43 ...
 $ Real.GDP..Percent.Change.   : num  4.6 NA NA 8 NA NA 11.9 NA NA 6.7 ...
 $ Unemployment.Rate           : num  5.8 6 6.1 5.7 5.3 5 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 ...
 $ Inflation.Rate              : num  NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...

Here we see that we have several types of data, as well as a lot of missing data. We see that for some number of rows, we have a lot of missing values. For many years we seem to be missing the target rate while for other years we are missing the upper and lower target. For most years we seem to have the effective federal funds rate, which is the weighted average of interest across bank transactions for the year rather than the target rate the FOMC sets.

Year Month Effective.Federal.Funds.Rate Real.GDP..Percent.Change. Unemployment.Rate Inflation.Rate
1954 7 0.80 4.6 5.8 NA
1954 8 1.22 NA 6.0 NA
1954 9 1.06 NA 6.1 NA
1954 10 0.85 8.0 5.7 NA
1954 11 0.83 NA 5.3 NA
1954 12 1.28 NA 5.0 NA
1955 1 1.39 11.9 4.9 NA
1955 2 1.29 NA 4.7 NA
1955 3 1.35 NA 4.6 NA
1955 4 1.43 6.7 4.7 NA
1955 5 1.43 NA 4.3 NA
1955 6 1.64 NA 4.2 NA
1955 7 1.68 5.5 4.0 NA
1955 8 1.96 NA 4.2 NA
1955 9 2.18 NA 4.1 NA
1955 10 2.24 2.4 4.3 NA
1955 11 2.35 NA 4.2 NA
1955 12 2.48 NA 4.2 NA
1956 1 2.45 -1.5 4.0 NA
1956 2 2.50 NA 3.9 NA
1956 3 2.50 NA 4.2 NA
1956 4 2.62 3.4 4.0 NA
1956 5 2.75 NA 4.3 NA
1956 6 2.71 NA 4.3 NA
1956 7 2.75 -0.3 4.4 NA
1956 8 2.73 NA 4.1 NA
1956 9 2.95 NA 3.9 NA
1956 10 2.96 6.7 3.9 NA
1956 11 2.88 NA 4.3 NA
1956 12 2.94 NA 4.2 NA
1957 1 2.84 2.6 4.2 NA
1957 2 3.00 NA 3.9 NA
1957 3 2.96 NA 3.7 NA
1957 4 3.00 -0.9 3.9 NA
1957 5 3.00 NA 4.1 NA
1957 6 3.00 NA 4.3 NA
1957 7 2.99 4.0 4.2 NA
1957 8 3.24 NA 4.1 NA
1957 9 3.47 NA 4.4 NA
1957 10 3.50 -4.0 4.5 NA
1957 11 3.28 NA 5.1 NA
1957 12 2.98 NA 5.2 NA
1958 1 2.72 -10.0 5.8 3.2
1958 2 1.67 NA 6.4 3.2
1958 3 1.20 NA 6.7 2.8
1958 4 1.26 2.6 7.4 2.4
1958 5 0.63 NA 7.4 2.4
1958 6 0.93 NA 7.3 2.1
1958 7 0.68 9.6 7.5 2.4
1958 8 1.53 NA 7.4 2.1
1958 9 1.76 NA 7.1 1.7
1958 10 1.80 9.7 6.7 1.7
1958 11 2.27 NA 6.2 1.7
1958 12 2.42 NA 6.2 1.7
1959 1 2.48 7.7 6.0 1.7
1959 2 2.43 NA 5.9 1.7
1959 3 2.80 NA 5.6 1.7
1959 4 2.96 10.1 5.2 1.7
1959 5 2.90 NA 5.1 2.0
1959 6 3.39 NA 5.0 2.0
1959 7 3.47 -0.8 5.1 2.0
1959 8 3.50 NA 5.2 2.0
1959 9 3.76 NA 5.5 2.4
1959 10 3.98 1.6 5.7 2.7
1959 11 4.00 NA 5.8 2.0
1959 12 3.99 NA 5.3 2.0
1960 1 3.99 9.2 5.2 2.0
1960 2 3.97 NA 4.8 2.3
1960 3 3.84 NA 5.4 2.0
1960 4 3.92 -1.5 5.2 2.0
1960 5 3.85 NA 5.1 1.7
1960 6 3.32 NA 5.4 1.7
1960 7 3.23 1.0 5.5 1.3
1960 8 2.98 NA 5.6 1.3
1960 9 2.60 NA 5.5 1.0
1960 10 2.47 -4.8 6.1 1.0
1960 11 2.44 NA 6.1 1.0
1960 12 1.98 NA 6.6 1.0
1961 1 1.45 2.7 6.6 1.0
1961 2 2.54 NA 6.9 0.7
1961 3 2.02 NA 6.9 0.7
1961 4 1.49 7.6 7.0 1.0
1961 5 1.98 NA 7.1 1.0
1961 6 1.73 NA 6.9 1.0
1961 7 1.17 6.8 7.0 1.3
1961 8 2.00 NA 6.6 1.3
1961 9 1.88 NA 6.7 1.6
1961 10 2.26 8.3 6.5 1.3
1961 11 2.61 NA 6.1 1.3
1961 12 2.33 NA 6.0 1.3
1962 1 2.15 7.4 5.8 1.3
1962 2 2.37 NA 5.5 1.3
1962 3 2.85 NA 5.6 1.6
1962 4 2.78 4.4 5.6 1.3
1962 5 2.36 NA 5.5 1.6
1962 6 2.68 NA 5.5 1.6
1962 7 2.71 3.9 5.4 1.3
1962 8 2.93 NA 5.7 1.3
1962 9 2.90 NA 5.6 1.3
1962 10 2.90 1.6 5.4 1.3
1962 11 2.94 NA 5.7 1.3
1962 12 2.93 NA 5.5 1.3
1963 1 2.92 4.5 5.7 1.0
1963 2 3.00 NA 5.9 1.0
1963 3 2.98 NA 5.7 1.0
1963 4 2.90 5.3 5.7 1.3
1963 5 3.00 NA 5.9 1.0
1963 6 2.99 NA 5.6 1.3
1963 7 3.02 8.0 5.6 1.3
1963 8 3.49 NA 5.4 1.6
1963 9 3.48 NA 5.5 1.3
1963 10 3.50 2.9 5.5 1.3
1963 11 3.48 NA 5.7 1.6
1963 12 3.38 NA 5.5 1.6
1964 1 3.48 8.9 5.6 1.9
1964 2 3.48 NA 5.4 1.9
1964 3 3.43 NA 5.4 1.9
1964 4 3.47 4.8 5.3 1.6
1964 5 3.50 NA 5.1 1.6
1964 6 3.50 NA 5.2 1.6
1964 7 3.42 5.5 4.9 1.6
1964 8 3.50 NA 5.0 0.9
1964 9 3.45 NA 5.1 1.3
1964 10 3.36 1.4 5.1 1.3
1964 11 3.52 NA 4.8 1.2
1964 12 3.85 NA 5.0 1.2
1965 1 3.90 10.2 4.9 1.6
1965 2 3.98 NA 5.1 1.6
1965 3 4.04 NA 4.7 1.2
1965 4 4.09 5.6 4.8 1.6
1965 5 4.10 NA 4.6 1.6
1965 6 4.04 NA 4.6 1.2
1965 7 4.09 8.4 4.4 1.2
1965 8 4.12 NA 4.4 1.6
1965 9 4.01 NA 4.3 1.5
1965 10 4.08 9.8 4.2 1.5
1965 11 4.10 NA 4.1 1.2
1965 12 4.32 NA 4.0 1.5
1966 1 4.42 10.2 4.0 0.9
1966 2 4.60 NA 3.8 1.2
1966 3 4.65 NA 3.8 1.5
1966 4 4.67 1.6 3.8 1.8
1966 5 4.90 NA 3.9 2.1
1966 6 5.17 NA 3.8 2.4
1966 7 5.30 2.9 3.8 2.8
1966 8 5.53 NA 3.8 3.1
1966 9 5.40 NA 3.7 3.0
1966 10 5.53 3.5 3.7 3.3
1966 11 5.76 NA 3.6 3.6
1966 12 5.40 NA 3.8 3.3
1967 1 4.94 3.7 3.9 3.6
1967 2 5.00 NA 3.8 3.6
1967 3 4.53 NA 3.8 3.6
1967 4 4.05 0.3 3.8 3.3
1967 5 3.94 NA 3.8 3.3
1967 6 3.98 NA 3.9 3.3
1967 7 3.79 3.5 3.8 3.3
1967 8 3.90 NA 3.8 3.3
1967 9 3.99 NA 3.8 3.6
1967 10 3.88 3.2 4.0 3.5
1967 11 4.13 NA 3.9 3.5
1967 12 4.51 NA 3.8 3.8
1968 1 4.60 8.4 3.7 4.1
1968 2 4.71 NA 3.8 4.1
1968 3 5.05 NA 3.7 4.4
1968 4 5.76 6.9 3.5 4.4
1968 5 6.11 NA 3.5 4.3
1968 6 6.07 NA 3.7 4.6
1968 7 6.02 2.9 3.7 4.9
1968 8 6.03 NA 3.5 4.9
1968 9 5.78 NA 3.4 4.9
1968 10 5.91 1.8 3.4 4.8
1968 11 5.82 NA 3.4 5.1
1968 12 6.02 NA 3.4 5.1
1969 1 6.30 6.4 3.4 5.1
1969 2 6.61 NA 3.4 5.3
1969 3 6.79 NA 3.4 5.6
1969 4 7.41 1.3 3.4 6.1
1969 5 8.67 NA 3.4 6.1
1969 6 8.90 NA 3.5 5.8
1969 7 8.61 2.5 3.5 5.8
1969 8 9.19 NA 3.5 5.8
1969 9 9.15 NA 3.7 6.0
1969 10 9.00 -1.7 3.7 6.0
1969 11 8.85 NA 3.5 5.9
1969 12 8.97 NA 3.5 6.2
1970 1 8.98 -0.7 3.9 6.2
1970 2 8.98 NA 4.2 6.1
1970 3 7.76 NA 4.4 6.1
1970 4 8.10 0.7 4.6 5.8
1970 5 7.94 NA 4.8 6.0
1970 6 7.60 NA 4.9 6.5
1970 7 7.21 3.6 5.0 6.2
1970 8 6.61 NA 5.1 6.2
1970 9 6.29 NA 5.4 6.2
1970 10 6.20 -4.0 5.5 6.4
1970 11 5.60 NA 5.9 6.6
1970 12 4.90 NA 6.1 6.6
1971 1 4.14 11.1 5.9 6.3
1971 2 3.72 NA 5.9 5.8
1971 3 3.71 NA 6.0 5.2
1971 4 4.15 2.3 5.9 5.0
1971 5 4.63 NA 5.9 5.2
1971 6 4.91 NA 5.9 4.9
1971 7 5.31 3.2 6.0 4.9
1971 8 5.56 NA 6.1 4.6
1971 9 5.55 NA 6.0 4.4
1971 10 5.20 1.2 5.8 3.8
1971 11 4.91 NA 6.0 3.3
1971 12 4.14 NA 6.0 3.1
1972 1 3.50 7.4 5.8 3.1
1972 2 3.29 NA 5.7 3.3
1972 3 3.83 NA 5.8 3.3
1972 4 4.17 9.6 5.7 3.3
1972 5 4.27 NA 5.7 3.1
1972 6 4.46 NA 5.7 2.8
1972 7 4.55 3.7 5.6 2.8
1972 8 4.80 NA 5.6 3.3
1972 9 4.87 NA 5.5 2.8
1972 10 5.04 6.8 5.6 3.0
1972 11 5.06 NA 5.3 3.0
1972 12 5.33 NA 5.2 3.0
1973 1 5.94 10.2 4.9 2.8
1973 2 6.58 NA 5.0 2.8
1973 3 7.09 NA 4.9 3.0
1973 4 7.12 4.6 5.0 3.2
1973 5 7.84 NA 4.9 3.2
1973 6 8.49 NA 4.9 3.2
1973 7 10.40 -2.2 4.8 3.2
1973 8 10.50 NA 4.8 3.2
1973 9 10.78 NA 4.8 3.8
1973 10 10.01 3.8 4.6 4.3
1973 11 10.03 NA 4.8 4.5
1973 12 9.95 NA 4.9 4.7
1974 1 9.65 -3.3 5.1 4.9
1974 2 8.97 NA 5.2 5.4
1974 3 9.35 NA 5.1 5.8
1974 4 10.51 1.1 5.1 6.2
1974 5 11.31 NA 5.1 6.8
1974 6 11.93 NA 5.4 7.9
1974 7 12.92 -3.8 5.5 8.8
1974 8 12.01 NA 5.5 9.6
1974 9 11.34 NA 5.9 10.2
1974 10 10.06 -1.6 6.0 10.6
1974 11 9.45 NA 6.6 11.2
1974 12 8.53 NA 7.2 11.1
1975 1 7.13 -4.7 8.1 11.5
1975 2 6.24 NA 8.1 11.7
1975 3 5.54 NA 8.6 11.4
1975 4 5.49 3.1 8.8 11.3
1975 5 5.22 NA 9.0 10.5
1975 6 5.55 NA 8.8 9.6
1975 7 6.10 6.8 8.6 9.1
1975 8 6.14 NA 8.4 8.2
1975 9 6.24 NA 8.4 7.7
1975 10 5.82 5.5 8.4 7.0
1975 11 5.22 NA 8.3 6.8
1975 12 5.20 NA 8.2 6.7
1976 1 4.87 9.3 7.9 6.7
1976 2 4.77 NA 7.7 6.5
1976 3 4.84 NA 7.6 6.6
1976 4 4.82 3.1 7.7 6.4
1976 5 5.29 NA 7.4 6.5
1976 6 5.48 NA 7.6 6.5
1976 7 5.31 2.1 7.8 6.7
1976 8 5.29 NA 7.8 6.8
1976 9 5.25 NA 7.6 6.8
1976 10 5.02 3.0 7.7 6.7
1976 11 4.95 NA 7.8 6.5
1976 12 4.65 NA 7.8 6.1
1977 1 4.61 4.7 7.5 6.3
1977 2 4.68 NA 7.6 6.3
1977 3 4.69 NA 7.4 6.2
1977 4 4.73 8.1 7.2 6.3
1977 5 5.35 NA 7.0 6.3
1977 6 5.39 NA 7.2 6.6
1977 7 5.42 7.3 6.9 6.3
1977 8 5.90 NA 7.0 6.2
1977 9 6.14 NA 6.8 6.2
1977 10 6.47 0.0 6.8 6.0
1977 11 6.51 NA 6.8 5.9
1977 12 6.56 NA 6.4 6.5
1978 1 6.70 1.4 6.4 6.4
1978 2 6.78 NA 6.3 6.2
1978 3 6.79 NA 6.3 6.3
1978 4 6.89 16.5 6.1 6.5
1978 5 7.36 NA 6.0 6.8
1978 6 7.60 NA 5.9 7.0
1978 7 7.81 4.0 6.2 7.4
1978 8 8.04 NA 5.9 7.5
1978 9 8.45 NA 6.0 7.9
1978 10 8.96 5.5 5.8 8.4
1978 11 9.76 NA 5.9 8.7
1978 12 10.03 NA 6.0 8.5
1979 1 10.07 0.8 5.9 8.6
1979 2 10.06 NA 5.9 9.2
1979 3 10.09 NA 5.8 9.3
1979 4 10.01 0.5 5.8 9.3
1979 5 10.24 NA 5.6 9.4
1979 6 10.29 NA 5.7 9.3
1979 7 10.47 2.9 5.7 9.6
1979 8 10.94 NA 6.0 10.0
1979 9 11.43 NA 5.9 9.9
1979 10 13.77 1.0 6.0 10.1
1979 11 13.18 NA 5.9 10.6
1979 12 13.78 NA 6.0 11.3
1980 1 13.82 1.3 6.3 12.0
1980 2 14.13 NA 6.3 12.0
1980 3 17.19 NA 6.3 12.5
1980 4 17.61 -7.9 6.9 13.0
1980 5 10.98 NA 7.5 13.3
1980 6 9.47 NA 7.6 13.6
1980 7 9.03 -0.6 7.8 12.4
1980 8 9.61 NA 7.7 11.8
1980 9 10.87 NA 7.5 12.0
1980 10 12.81 7.6 7.5 12.3
1980 11 15.85 NA 7.5 12.1
1980 12 18.90 NA 7.2 12.2
1981 1 19.08 8.5 7.5 11.4
1981 2 15.93 NA 7.4 10.9
1981 3 14.70 NA 7.4 10.0
1981 4 15.72 -2.9 7.2 9.5
1981 5 18.52 NA 7.5 9.5
1981 6 19.10 NA 7.5 9.4
1981 7 19.04 4.7 7.2 11.1
1981 8 17.82 NA 7.4 11.6
1981 9 15.87 NA 7.6 11.8
1981 10 15.08 -4.6 7.9 10.9
1981 11 13.31 NA 8.3 10.2
1981 12 12.37 NA 8.5 9.5
1982 1 13.22 -6.5 8.6 9.3
1982 2 14.78 NA 8.9 9.1
1982 3 14.68 NA 9.0 8.8
1982 4 14.94 2.2 9.3 8.9
1982 5 14.45 NA 9.4 8.7
1982 6 14.15 NA 9.6 8.6
1982 7 12.59 -1.4 9.8 7.6
1982 8 10.12 NA 9.8 7.1
1982 9 10.31 NA 10.1 5.9
1982 9 NA NA NA NA
1982 10 9.71 0.4 10.4 5.9
1982 10 NA NA NA NA
1982 11 9.20 NA 10.8 5.3
1982 11 NA NA NA NA
1982 12 8.95 NA 10.8 4.5
1982 12 NA NA NA NA
1983 1 8.68 5.3 10.4 4.7
1983 2 8.51 NA 10.4 4.7
1983 3 8.77 NA 10.3 4.7
1983 3 NA NA NA NA
1983 4 8.80 9.4 10.2 4.3
1983 5 8.63 NA 10.1 3.6
1983 5 NA NA NA NA
1983 6 8.98 NA 10.1 2.9
1983 6 NA NA NA NA
1983 7 9.37 8.1 9.4 3.0
1983 7 NA NA NA NA
1983 7 NA NA NA NA
1983 8 9.56 NA 9.5 3.0
1983 8 NA NA NA NA
1983 8 NA NA NA NA
1983 9 9.45 NA 9.2 3.5
1983 9 NA NA NA NA
1983 10 9.48 8.5 8.8 3.7
1983 11 9.34 NA 8.5 4.3
1983 12 9.47 NA 8.3 4.8
1984 1 9.56 8.2 8.0 4.8
1984 2 9.59 NA 7.8 4.8
1984 3 9.91 NA 7.8 5.0
1984 3 NA NA NA NA
1984 4 10.29 7.2 7.7 5.0
1984 5 10.32 NA 7.4 5.2
1984 6 11.06 NA 7.2 5.1
1984 7 11.23 4.0 7.5 5.0
1984 7 NA NA NA NA
1984 7 NA NA NA NA
1984 8 11.64 NA 7.5 5.1
1984 8 NA NA NA NA
1984 9 11.30 NA 7.3 5.1
1984 9 NA NA NA NA
1984 9 NA NA NA NA
1984 10 9.99 3.2 7.4 4.9
1984 10 NA NA NA NA
1984 10 NA NA NA NA
1984 11 9.43 NA 7.2 4.6
1984 11 NA NA NA NA
1984 11 NA NA NA NA
1984 12 8.38 NA 7.3 4.7
1984 12 NA NA NA NA
1984 12 NA NA NA NA
1984 12 NA NA NA NA
1985 1 8.35 4.0 7.3 4.5
1985 1 NA NA NA NA
1985 2 8.50 NA 7.2 4.7
1985 2 NA NA NA NA
1985 3 8.58 NA 7.2 4.8
1985 3 NA NA NA NA
1985 4 8.27 3.7 7.3 4.5
1985 4 NA NA NA NA
1985 5 7.97 NA 7.2 4.5
1985 5 NA NA NA NA
1985 6 7.53 NA 7.4 4.4
1985 7 7.88 6.4 7.4 4.2
1985 7 NA NA NA NA
1985 8 7.90 NA 7.1 4.1
1985 8 NA NA NA NA
1985 9 7.92 NA 7.1 4.0
1985 9 NA NA NA NA
1985 10 7.99 3.0 7.1 4.1
1985 11 8.05 NA 7.0 4.4
1985 12 8.27 NA 7.0 4.3
1985 12 NA NA NA NA
1986 1 8.14 3.8 6.7 4.4
1986 2 7.86 NA 7.2 4.2
1986 3 7.48 NA 7.2 4.1
1986 3 NA NA NA NA
1986 4 6.99 1.9 7.1 4.2
1986 4 NA NA NA NA
1986 4 NA NA NA NA
1986 5 6.85 NA 7.2 4.0
1986 5 NA NA NA NA
1986 6 6.92 NA 7.2 4.0
1986 6 NA NA NA NA
1986 7 6.56 4.1 7.0 4.1
1986 7 NA NA NA NA
1986 8 6.17 NA 6.9 4.0
1986 8 NA NA NA NA
1986 9 5.89 NA 7.0 4.1
1986 10 5.85 2.1 7.0 4.0
1986 11 6.04 NA 6.9 3.8
1986 12 6.91 NA 6.6 3.8
1987 1 6.43 2.8 6.6 3.8
1987 1 NA NA NA NA
1987 2 6.10 NA 6.6 3.8
1987 3 6.13 NA 6.6 4.0
1987 4 6.37 4.6 6.3 4.2
1987 4 NA NA NA NA
1987 5 6.85 NA 6.3 4.2
1987 5 NA NA NA NA
1987 6 6.73 NA 6.2 4.1
1987 7 6.58 3.7 6.1 4.0
1987 7 NA NA NA NA
1987 8 6.73 NA 6.0 4.2
1987 8 NA NA NA NA
1987 9 7.22 NA 5.9 4.3
1987 9 NA NA NA NA
1987 9 NA NA NA NA
1987 9 NA NA NA NA
1987 10 7.29 6.8 6.0 4.3
1987 11 6.69 NA 5.8 4.4
1987 11 NA NA NA NA
1987 12 6.77 NA 5.7 4.2
1988 1 6.83 2.3 5.7 4.3
1988 1 NA NA NA NA
1988 2 6.58 NA 5.7 4.3
1988 2 NA NA NA NA
1988 3 6.58 NA 5.7 4.4
1988 3 NA NA NA NA
1988 4 6.87 5.4 5.4 4.3
1988 5 7.09 NA 5.6 4.3
1988 5 NA NA NA NA
1988 5 NA NA NA NA
1988 6 7.51 NA 5.4 4.5
1988 6 NA NA NA NA
1988 7 7.75 2.3 5.4 4.5
1988 7 NA NA NA NA
1988 8 8.01 NA 5.6 4.4
1988 8 NA NA NA NA
1988 8 NA NA NA NA
1988 9 8.19 NA 5.4 4.4
1988 10 8.30 5.4 5.4 4.5
1988 11 8.35 NA 5.3 4.4
1988 11 NA NA NA NA
1988 11 NA NA NA NA
1988 12 8.76 NA 5.3 4.7
1988 12 NA NA NA NA
1989 1 9.12 4.1 5.4 4.6
1989 1 NA NA NA NA
1989 2 9.36 NA 5.2 4.8
1989 2 NA NA NA NA
1989 2 NA NA NA NA
1989 2 NA NA NA NA
1989 3 9.85 NA 5.0 4.7
1989 4 9.84 3.2 5.2 4.6
1989 5 9.81 NA 5.2 4.6
1989 5 NA NA NA NA
1989 6 9.53 NA 5.3 4.5
1989 6 NA NA NA NA
1989 7 9.24 3.0 5.2 4.6
1989 7 NA NA NA NA
1989 7 NA NA NA NA
1989 8 8.99 NA 5.2 4.4
1989 9 9.02 NA 5.3 4.3
1989 10 8.84 0.9 5.3 4.3
1989 10 NA NA NA NA
1989 11 8.55 NA 5.4 4.4
1989 11 NA NA NA NA
1989 12 8.45 NA 5.4 4.4
1989 12 NA NA NA NA
1990 1 8.23 4.5 5.4 4.4
1990 2 8.24 NA 5.3 4.6
1990 3 8.28 NA 5.2 4.9
1990 4 8.26 1.6 5.4 4.8
1990 5 8.18 NA 5.4 4.8
1990 6 8.29 NA 5.2 4.9
1990 7 8.15 0.1 5.5 5.0
1990 7 NA NA NA NA
1990 8 8.13 NA 5.7 5.5
1990 9 8.20 NA 5.9 5.5
1990 10 8.11 -3.4 5.9 5.3
1990 10 NA NA NA NA
1990 11 7.81 NA 6.2 5.3
1990 11 NA NA NA NA
1990 12 7.31 NA 6.3 5.2
1990 12 NA NA NA NA
1990 12 NA NA NA NA
1991 1 6.91 -1.9 6.4 5.6
1991 1 NA NA NA NA
1991 2 6.25 NA 6.6 5.6
1991 3 6.12 NA 6.8 5.2
1991 3 NA NA NA NA
1991 4 5.91 3.1 6.7 5.1
1991 4 NA NA NA NA
1991 5 5.78 NA 6.9 5.1
1991 6 5.90 NA 6.9 5.0
1991 7 5.82 1.9 6.8 4.8
1991 8 5.66 NA 6.9 4.6
1991 8 NA NA NA NA
1991 9 5.45 NA 6.9 4.5
1991 9 NA NA NA NA
1991 10 5.21 1.8 7.0 4.4
1991 10 NA NA NA NA
1991 11 4.81 NA 7.0 4.5
1991 11 NA NA NA NA
1991 12 4.43 NA 7.3 4.4
1991 12 NA NA NA NA
1991 12 NA NA NA NA
1992 1 4.03 4.8 7.3 3.9
1992 2 4.06 NA 7.4 3.8
1992 3 3.98 NA 7.4 3.9
1992 4 3.73 4.5 7.4 3.9
1992 4 NA NA NA NA
1992 5 3.82 NA 7.6 3.8
1992 6 3.76 NA 7.8 3.8
1992 7 3.25 3.9 7.7 3.7
1992 7 NA NA NA NA
1992 8 3.30 NA 7.6 3.5
1992 9 3.22 NA 7.6 3.3
1992 9 NA NA NA NA
1992 10 3.10 4.1 7.3 3.5
1992 11 3.09 NA 7.4 3.4
1992 12 2.92 NA 7.4 3.3
1993 1 3.02 0.8 7.3 3.5
1993 2 3.03 NA 7.1 3.6
1993 3 3.07 NA 7.0 3.4
1993 4 2.96 2.4 7.1 3.5
1993 5 3.00 NA 7.1 3.4
1993 6 3.04 NA 7.0 3.3
1993 7 3.06 2.0 6.9 3.2
1993 8 3.03 NA 6.8 3.3
1993 9 3.09 NA 6.7 3.2
1993 10 2.99 5.4 6.8 3.0
1993 11 3.02 NA 6.6 3.1
1993 12 2.96 NA 6.5 3.2
1994 1 3.05 4.0 6.6 2.9
1994 2 3.25 NA 6.6 2.8
1994 2 NA NA NA NA
1994 3 3.34 NA 6.5 2.9
1994 3 NA NA NA NA
1994 4 3.56 5.6 6.4 2.8
1994 4 NA NA NA NA
1994 5 4.01 NA 6.1 2.8
1994 5 NA NA NA NA
1994 6 4.25 NA 6.1 2.9
1994 7 4.26 2.4 6.1 2.9
1994 8 4.47 NA 6.0 2.9
1994 8 NA NA NA NA
1994 9 4.73 NA 5.9 3.0
1994 10 4.76 4.6 5.8 2.9
1994 11 5.29 NA 5.6 2.8
1994 11 NA NA NA NA
1994 12 5.45 NA 5.5 2.6
1995 1 5.53 1.4 5.6 2.9
1995 2 5.92 NA 5.4 3.0
1995 3 5.98 NA 5.4 3.0
1995 4 6.05 1.4 5.8 3.1
1995 5 6.01 NA 5.6 3.1
1995 6 6.00 NA 5.6 3.0
1995 7 5.85 3.5 5.7 3.0
1995 7 NA NA NA NA
1995 8 5.74 NA 5.7 2.9
1995 9 5.80 NA 5.6 2.9
1995 10 5.76 2.9 5.5 3.0
1995 11 5.80 NA 5.6 3.0
1995 12 5.60 NA 5.6 3.0
1995 12 NA NA NA NA
1996 1 5.56 2.7 5.6 3.0
1996 1 NA NA NA NA
1996 2 5.22 NA 5.5 2.9
1996 3 5.31 NA 5.5 2.8
1996 4 5.22 7.2 5.6 2.7
1996 5 5.24 NA 5.6 2.7
1996 6 5.27 NA 5.3 2.7
1996 7 5.40 3.7 5.5 2.7
1996 8 5.22 NA 5.1 2.6
1996 9 5.30 NA 5.2 2.7
1996 10 5.24 4.3 5.2 2.6
1996 11 5.31 NA 5.4 2.6
1996 12 5.29 NA 5.4 2.6
1997 1 5.25 3.1 5.3 2.5
1997 2 5.19 NA 5.2 2.5
1997 3 5.39 NA 5.2 2.5
1997 3 NA NA NA NA
1997 4 5.51 6.2 5.1 2.7
1997 5 5.50 NA 4.9 2.5
1997 6 5.56 NA 5.0 2.4
1997 7 5.52 5.2 4.9 2.4
1997 8 5.54 NA 4.8 2.3
1997 9 5.54 NA 4.9 2.2
1997 10 5.50 3.1 4.7 2.3
1997 11 5.52 NA 4.6 2.2
1997 12 5.50 NA 4.7 2.2
1998 1 5.56 4.0 4.6 2.2
1998 2 5.51 NA 4.6 2.3
1998 3 5.49 NA 4.7 2.1
1998 4 5.45 3.9 4.3 2.1
1998 5 5.49 NA 4.4 2.2
1998 6 5.56 NA 4.5 2.2
1998 7 5.54 5.3 4.5 2.2
1998 8 5.55 NA 4.5 2.5
1998 9 5.51 NA 4.6 2.5
1998 9 NA NA NA NA
1998 10 5.07 6.7 4.5 2.3
1998 10 NA NA NA NA
1998 11 4.83 NA 4.4 2.3
1998 11 NA NA NA NA
1998 12 4.68 NA 4.4 2.4
1999 1 4.63 3.2 4.3 2.4
1999 2 4.76 NA 4.4 2.1
1999 3 4.81 NA 4.2 2.1
1999 4 4.74 3.3 4.3 2.2
1999 5 4.74 NA 4.2 2.0
1999 6 4.76 NA 4.3 2.1
1999 6 NA NA NA NA
1999 7 4.99 5.1 4.3 2.1
1999 8 5.07 NA 4.2 1.9
1999 8 NA NA NA NA
1999 9 5.22 NA 4.2 2.0
1999 10 5.20 7.1 4.1 2.1
1999 11 5.42 NA 4.1 2.1
1999 11 NA NA NA NA
1999 12 5.30 NA 4.0 1.9
2000 1 5.45 1.2 4.0 2.0
2000 2 5.73 NA 4.1 2.2
2000 2 NA NA NA NA
2000 3 5.85 NA 4.0 2.4
2000 3 NA NA NA NA
2000 4 6.02 7.8 3.8 2.3
2000 5 6.27 NA 4.0 2.4
2000 5 NA NA NA NA
2000 6 6.53 NA 4.0 2.5
2000 7 6.54 0.5 4.0 2.5
2000 8 6.50 NA 4.1 2.6
2000 9 6.52 NA 3.9 2.6
2000 10 6.51 2.3 3.9 2.5
2000 11 6.51 NA 3.9 2.6
2000 12 6.40 NA 3.9 2.6
2001 1 5.98 -1.1 4.2 2.6
2001 1 NA NA NA NA
2001 1 NA NA NA NA
2001 2 5.49 NA 4.2 2.7
2001 3 5.31 NA 4.3 2.7
2001 3 NA NA NA NA
2001 4 4.80 2.1 4.4 2.6
2001 4 NA NA NA NA
2001 5 4.21 NA 4.3 2.5
2001 5 NA NA NA NA
2001 6 3.97 NA 4.5 2.7
2001 6 NA NA NA NA
2001 7 3.77 -1.3 4.6 2.7
2001 8 3.65 NA 4.9 2.7
2001 8 NA NA NA NA
2001 9 3.07 NA 5.0 2.6
2001 9 NA NA NA NA
2001 10 2.49 1.1 5.3 2.6
2001 10 NA NA NA NA
2001 11 2.09 NA 5.5 2.8
2001 11 NA NA NA NA
2001 12 1.82 NA 5.7 2.7
2001 12 NA NA NA NA
2002 1 1.73 3.7 5.7 2.6
2002 2 1.74 NA 5.7 2.6
2002 3 1.73 NA 5.7 2.4
2002 4 1.75 2.2 5.9 2.5
2002 5 1.75 NA 5.8 2.5
2002 6 1.75 NA 5.8 2.3
2002 7 1.73 2.0 5.8 2.2
2002 8 1.74 NA 5.7 2.4
2002 9 1.75 NA 5.7 2.2
2002 10 1.75 0.3 5.7 2.2
2002 11 1.34 NA 5.9 2.0
2002 11 NA NA NA NA
2002 12 1.24 NA 6.0 1.9
2003 1 1.24 2.1 5.8 1.9
2003 2 1.26 NA 5.9 1.7
2003 3 1.25 NA 5.9 1.7
2003 4 1.26 3.8 6.0 1.5
2003 5 1.26 NA 6.1 1.6
2003 6 1.22 NA 6.3 1.5
2003 6 NA NA NA NA
2003 7 1.01 6.9 6.2 1.5
2003 8 1.03 NA 6.1 1.3
2003 9 1.01 NA 6.1 1.2
2003 10 1.01 4.8 6.0 1.3
2003 11 1.00 NA 5.8 1.1
2003 12 0.98 NA 5.7 1.1
2004 1 1.00 2.3 5.7 1.1
2004 2 1.01 NA 5.6 1.2
2004 3 1.00 NA 5.8 1.6
2004 4 1.00 3.0 5.6 1.8
2004 5 1.00 NA 5.6 1.7
2004 6 1.03 NA 5.6 1.9
2004 6 NA NA NA NA
2004 7 1.26 3.7 5.5 1.8
2004 8 1.43 NA 5.4 1.7
2004 8 NA NA NA NA
2004 9 1.61 NA 5.4 2.0
2004 9 NA NA NA NA
2004 10 1.76 3.5 5.5 2.0
2004 11 1.93 NA 5.4 2.2
2004 11 NA NA NA NA
2004 12 2.16 NA 5.4 2.2
2004 12 NA NA NA NA
2005 1 2.28 4.3 5.3 2.3
2005 2 2.50 NA 5.4 2.4
2005 2 NA NA NA NA
2005 3 2.63 NA 5.2 2.3
2005 3 NA NA NA NA
2005 4 2.79 2.1 5.2 2.2
2005 5 3.00 NA 5.1 2.2
2005 5 NA NA NA NA
2005 6 3.04 NA 5.0 2.0
2005 6 NA NA NA NA
2005 7 3.26 3.4 5.0 2.1
2005 8 3.50 NA 4.9 2.1
2005 8 NA NA NA NA
2005 9 3.62 NA 5.0 2.0
2005 9 NA NA NA NA
2005 10 3.78 2.3 5.0 2.1
2005 11 4.00 NA 5.0 2.1
2005 12 4.16 NA 4.9 2.2
2005 12 NA NA NA NA
2006 1 4.29 4.9 4.7 2.1
2006 1 NA NA NA NA
2006 2 4.49 NA 4.8 2.1
2006 3 4.59 NA 4.7 2.1
2006 3 NA NA NA NA
2006 4 4.79 1.2 4.7 2.3
2006 5 4.94 NA 4.6 2.4
2006 5 NA NA NA NA
2006 6 4.99 NA 4.6 2.6
2006 6 NA NA NA NA
2006 7 5.24 0.4 4.7 2.7
2006 8 5.25 NA 4.7 2.8
2006 9 5.25 NA 4.5 2.9
2006 10 5.25 3.2 4.4 2.7
2006 11 5.25 NA 4.5 2.6
2006 12 5.24 NA 4.4 2.6
2007 1 5.25 0.2 4.6 2.7
2007 2 5.26 NA 4.5 2.7
2007 3 5.26 NA 4.4 2.5
2007 4 5.25 3.1 4.5 2.3
2007 5 5.25 NA 4.4 2.2
2007 6 5.25 NA 4.6 2.2
2007 7 5.26 2.7 4.7 2.2
2007 8 5.02 NA 4.6 2.1
2007 9 4.94 NA 4.7 2.1
2007 9 NA NA NA NA
2007 10 4.76 1.4 4.7 2.2
2007 10 NA NA NA NA
2007 11 4.49 NA 4.7 2.3
2007 12 4.24 NA 5.0 2.4
2007 12 NA NA NA NA
2008 1 3.94 -2.7 5.0 2.5
2008 1 NA NA NA NA
2008 1 NA NA NA NA
2008 2 2.98 NA 4.9 2.3
2008 3 2.61 NA 5.1 2.4
2008 3 NA NA NA NA
2008 4 2.28 2.0 5.0 2.3
2008 4 NA NA NA NA
2008 5 1.98 NA 5.4 2.3
2008 6 2.00 NA 5.6 2.4
2008 7 2.01 -1.9 5.8 2.5
2008 8 2.00 NA 6.1 2.5
2008 9 1.81 NA 6.1 2.5
2008 10 0.97 -8.2 6.5 2.2
2008 10 NA NA NA NA
2008 10 NA NA NA NA
2008 11 0.39 NA 6.8 2.0
2008 12 0.16 NA 7.3 1.8
2008 12 NA NA NA NA
2009 1 0.15 -5.4 7.8 1.7
2009 2 0.22 NA 8.3 1.8
2009 3 0.18 NA 8.7 1.8
2009 4 0.15 -0.5 9.0 1.9
2009 5 0.18 NA 9.4 1.8
2009 6 0.21 NA 9.5 1.7
2009 7 0.16 1.3 9.5 1.5
2009 8 0.16 NA 9.6 1.4
2009 9 0.15 NA 9.8 1.5
2009 10 0.12 3.9 10.0 1.7
2009 11 0.12 NA 9.9 1.7
2009 12 0.12 NA 9.9 1.8
2010 1 0.11 1.7 9.8 1.6
2010 2 0.13 NA 9.8 1.3
2010 3 0.16 NA 9.9 1.1
2010 4 0.20 3.9 9.9 0.9
2010 5 0.20 NA 9.6 0.9
2010 6 0.18 NA 9.4 0.9
2010 7 0.18 2.7 9.4 0.9
2010 8 0.19 NA 9.5 0.9
2010 9 0.19 NA 9.5 0.8
2010 10 0.19 2.5 9.4 0.6
2010 11 0.19 NA 9.8 0.8
2010 12 0.18 NA 9.3 0.8
2011 1 0.17 -1.5 9.1 1.0
2011 2 0.16 NA 9.0 1.1
2011 3 0.14 NA 9.0 1.2
2011 4 0.10 2.9 9.1 1.3
2011 5 0.09 NA 9.0 1.5
2011 6 0.09 NA 9.1 1.6
2011 7 0.07 0.8 9.0 1.8
2011 8 0.10 NA 9.0 2.0
2011 9 0.08 NA 9.0 2.0
2011 10 0.07 4.6 8.8 2.1
2011 11 0.08 NA 8.6 2.2
2011 12 0.07 NA 8.5 2.2
2012 1 0.08 2.7 8.3 2.3
2012 2 0.10 NA 8.3 2.2
2012 3 0.13 NA 8.2 2.3
2012 4 0.14 1.9 8.2 2.3
2012 5 0.16 NA 8.2 2.3
2012 6 0.16 NA 8.2 2.2
2012 7 0.16 0.5 8.2 2.1
2012 8 0.13 NA 8.1 1.9
2012 9 0.14 NA 7.8 2.0
2012 10 0.16 0.1 7.8 2.0
2012 11 0.16 NA 7.7 1.9
2012 12 0.16 NA 7.9 1.9
2013 1 0.14 2.8 8.0 1.9
2013 2 0.15 NA 7.7 2.0
2013 3 0.14 NA 7.5 1.9
2013 4 0.15 0.8 7.6 1.7
2013 5 0.11 NA 7.5 1.7
2013 6 0.09 NA 7.5 1.6
2013 7 0.09 3.1 7.3 1.7
2013 8 0.08 NA 7.3 1.8
2013 9 0.08 NA 7.2 1.7
2013 10 0.09 4.0 7.2 1.7
2013 11 0.08 NA 6.9 1.7
2013 12 0.09 NA 6.7 1.7
2014 1 0.07 -1.2 6.6 1.6
2014 2 0.07 NA 6.7 1.6
2014 3 0.08 NA 6.7 1.7
2014 4 0.09 4.0 6.2 1.8
2014 5 0.09 NA 6.3 2.0
2014 6 0.10 NA 6.1 1.9
2014 7 0.09 5.0 6.2 1.9
2014 8 0.09 NA 6.2 1.7
2014 9 0.09 NA 5.9 1.7
2014 10 0.09 2.3 5.7 1.8
2014 11 0.09 NA 5.8 1.7
2014 12 0.12 NA 5.6 1.6
2015 1 0.11 2.0 5.7 1.6
2015 2 0.11 NA 5.5 1.7
2015 3 0.11 NA 5.4 1.8
2015 4 0.12 2.6 5.4 1.8
2015 5 0.12 NA 5.5 1.7
2015 6 0.13 NA 5.3 1.8
2015 7 0.13 2.0 5.2 1.8
2015 8 0.14 NA 5.1 1.8
2015 9 0.14 NA 5.0 1.9
2015 10 0.12 0.9 5.0 1.9
2015 11 0.12 NA 5.0 2.0
2015 12 0.24 NA 5.0 2.1
2015 12 NA NA NA NA
2016 1 0.34 0.8 4.9 2.2
2016 2 0.38 NA 4.9 2.3
2016 3 0.36 NA 5.0 2.2
2016 4 0.37 1.4 5.0 2.1
2016 5 0.37 NA 4.7 2.2
2016 6 0.38 NA 4.9 2.2
2016 7 0.39 3.5 4.9 2.2
2016 8 0.40 NA 4.9 2.3
2016 9 0.40 NA 4.9 2.2
2016 10 0.40 1.9 4.8 2.1
2016 11 0.41 NA 4.6 2.1
2016 12 0.54 NA 4.7 2.2
2016 12 NA NA NA NA
2017 1 0.65 NA 4.8 2.3
2017 2 0.66 NA 4.7 2.2
2017 3 NA NA NA NA
2017 3 NA NA NA NA
Year Year.EFFR.Mean Year.UR.Mean Year.IR.Mean
1954 1.0066667 5.650000 NaN
1955 1.7850000 4.366667 NaN
1956 2.7283333 4.125000 NaN
1957 3.1050000 4.300000 NaN
1958 1.5725000 6.841667 2.2833333
1959 3.3050000 5.450000 1.9916667
1960 3.2158333 5.541667 1.5250000
1961 1.9550000 6.691667 1.1250000
1962 2.7083333 5.566667 1.3750000
1963 3.1783333 5.641667 1.2750000
1964 3.4966667 5.158333 1.5000000
1965 4.0725000 4.508333 1.4416667
1966 5.1108333 3.791667 2.4166667
1967 4.2200000 3.841667 3.4750000
1968 5.6566667 3.558333 4.6333333
1969 8.2041667 3.491667 5.8083333
1970 7.1808333 4.983333 6.2416667
1971 4.6608333 5.950000 4.7083333
1972 4.4308333 5.600000 3.0666667
1973 8.7275000 4.858333 3.4916667
1974 10.5025000 5.641667 8.2083333
1975 5.8241667 8.475000 9.2916667
1976 5.0450000 7.700000 6.5666667
1977 5.5375000 7.050000 6.2583333
1978 7.9308333 6.066667 7.3000000
1979 11.1941667 5.850000 9.7166667
1980 13.3558333 7.175000 12.4333333
1981 16.3783333 7.616667 10.4833333
1982 12.2583333 9.708333 7.4750000
1983 9.0866667 9.600000 3.9333333
1984 10.2250000 7.508333 4.9416667
1985 8.1008333 7.191667 4.3750000
1986 6.8050000 7.000000 4.0583333
1987 6.6575000 6.175000 4.1250000
1988 7.5683333 5.491667 4.4166667
1989 9.2166667 5.258333 4.5166667
1990 8.0991667 5.616667 5.0166667
1991 5.6875000 6.850000 4.9000000
1992 3.5216667 7.491667 3.6500000
1993 3.0225000 6.908333 3.3083333
1994 4.2016667 6.100000 2.8500000
1995 5.8366667 5.591667 2.9916667
1996 5.2983333 5.408333 2.7166667
1997 5.4600000 4.941667 2.3916667
1998 5.3533333 4.500000 2.2750000
1999 4.9700000 4.216667 2.0833333
2000 6.2358333 3.966667 2.4333333
2001 3.8875000 4.741667 2.6583333
2002 1.6666667 5.783333 2.3166667
2003 1.1275000 5.991667 1.4500000
2004 1.3491667 5.541667 1.7666667
2005 3.2133333 5.083333 2.1666667
2006 4.9641667 4.608333 2.4916667
2007 5.0191667 4.616667 2.3250000
2008 1.9275000 5.800000 2.3083333
2009 0.1600000 9.283333 1.6916667
2010 0.1750000 9.608333 0.9583333
2011 0.1016667 8.933333 1.6666667
2012 0.1400000 8.075000 2.1166667
2013 0.1075000 7.366667 1.7583333
2014 0.0891667 6.166667 1.7500000
2015 0.1325000 5.258333 1.8250000
2016 0.3950000 4.850000 2.1916667
2017 0.6550000 4.750000 2.2500000

So now I have two tables: one is the original and the other is a set of means for each year. For this data set, we’re going to use the effective federal funds rate rather than the other available rates because it is the most widely available. In this case, we want to map out the effective federal funds rate over the course of 1954-2017.

Now we’re going to create some graphs to see the effect of the effective federal funds rate on unemployment and inflation rates.

Warning: Removed 152 rows containing non-finite values (`stat_smooth()`).
Warning: Removed 152 rows containing missing values (`geom_point()`).

Warning: Removed 4 rows containing missing values (`geom_point()`).

Warning: Removed 152 rows containing missing values (`geom_point()`).
Warning: Removed 194 rows containing missing values (`geom_point()`).

As you can see, I have plotted three graphs with different information in each. The first graph is the raw data of the EFFR plotted against the year, which is why there are multiple points for certain years. As you can see the EFFR rose to a maximum during 1980, and then continued to drop from there until 2017. In the second graph, showing the mean of each year’s EFFR, UR, and IR over the years, we can see a distinct correlation in between the points. A statistical analysis would have to be completed for all three variables to say for sure if EFFR does actually influence UR and IR, however.

For the third graph, I plotted the raw data again of the IR and UR against the EFFR. This shows that the higher the EFFR, the higher the rate of unemployment and inflation. Inflation seems to be more affected by EFFR than unemployment, which makes sense considering that EFFR is adjusted according to the money available, directly influencing inflation.